The $2.6 Billion Question: What Haitian TPS Holders Contribute to Florida's Economy

Introduction: The Number That Changed the Conversation Every news story about Haitian TPS in Florida starts with the same number: $2.6 billion annually. It has become the headline, the shorthand, the single data point that journalists, advocates, and politicians reach for when they need to explain what is at stake. But what is actually inside that number? Where does it come from? And what does it really mean for the Florida economy? The figure comes from a January 2026 analysis by FWD.us, conducted by Dr. Phillip Connor, a research fellow at Princeton University, using augmented 2024 American Community Survey data. It represents the total annual income of Haitian TPS holders in Florida after payment of taxes -- their net spending power in the state economy. It is $2.6 billion that flows through Florida's economy in the form of rent, groceries, car payments, healthcare spending, restaurant meals, and every other category of consumer expenditure. But $2.6 billion is just the direct contribution. When you add in the multiplier effects captured by the Penn Wharton Budget Model, which found that all TPS workers in Florida generate $10.7 billion in GDP, the number gets significantly larger. And when you consider that 14.5 percent of TPS holders own businesses (compared to 9.3 percent of U.S.-born workers), the figure begins to tell a story not just about spending but about economic creation -- about people who do not just participate in the economy but build it. Background: Who Are Haitian TPS Holders in Florida? Florida is home to approximately 158,000 Haitian TPS holders, making it the state with the largest concentration of Haitian TPS beneficiaries in the country. Of those, roughly 93,000 are active in the workforce. Their labor force participation rate of 79.4 percent exceeds the U.S.-born rate of approximately 62 percent. Their 94.6 percent employment rate is higher than both the native-born population and other foreign-born groups. They are not competing for jobs -- they are filling them at rates that exceed every other demographic. The $2.6 billion breaks down into three major components: $306 million in state and local taxes, $300 million in federal and payroll taxes, and roughly $2 billion in direct consumer spending. That spending supports jobs across the economy -- not just within the TPS community but among the grocers, landlords, auto dealers, and service providers who depend on TPS customers. But the most striking finding is the entrepreneurship rate. The American Immigration Council found that TPS holders are the most entrepreneurial immigrant category in the United States. In Florida, 8,200 self-employed TPS holders generated $608.5 million in business income in 2021. These are owners of home health agencies, trucking companies, construction contractors, restaurants, tax preparation services, and real estate firms. At 14.5 percent, TPS holders are 56 percent more likely to own a business than U.S.-born workers. Timeline: Key Developments in the Economic Data Date Event 2017 ILRC publishes landmark study: terminating TPS for El Salvador, Honduras, and Haiti would reduce U.S. GDP by $45.2 billion over a decade. Sep 2023 American Immigration Council updates analysis: TPS holders nationally earned $10.3 billion, paid $2.2 billion in taxes, held $8 billion in spending power. 41% of TPS households own homes. Nov 19, 2025 Penn Wharton Budget Model publishes "550,000 Workers Lose Status by End of 2025." Finds TPS workers generated $35.9 billion in GDP in 2023. Florida alone: $10.7 billion. Jan 22, 2026 FWD.us releases new data: Haitian TPS holders contribute $5.9 billion nationally, $2.6 billion to Florida, $1.5 billion to Miami metro. Jan 27, 2026 FWD.us publishes Haiti TPS Fact Sheet with full metro and state breakdowns. Apr 21, 2026 FWD.us releases national TPS report: $29 billion spending power, $7.8 billion in taxes, $262 billion cumulative contribution since 1990, $20 billion contributed to Social Security over 25 years. Jul 7, 2026 Florida Health Care Association sends letter to DHS: 35,000 healthcare workers at risk, citing economic impact data.

The People Behind the Numbers The $2.6 billion is not an abstraction. It is composed of specific people doing specific work, earning specific wages, and contributing to specific communities. Understanding the number requires understanding the people who generate it. The Nursing Assistant Thirteen thousand Haitian TPS nursing assistants serve 65,000 patients daily across the United States. In Florida, 4,000 work specifically as nursing assistants. One in five Haitian TPS holders works in healthcare. The Florida Health Care Association puts the total number of TPS healthcare workers in the state at 35,000. These workers earn below the median TPS income of $42,833 for full-time workers, yet they provide care that the system cannot replace. When a nursing assistant loses work authorization, the facility does not simply hire a replacement. The vacancy stays open, or the facility reduces capacity. The Entrepreneur Eight thousand two hundred self-employed TPS holders in Florida generated $608.5 million in business income. These are home health agency owners who started their companies after years as CNAs. They are trucking company operators, construction contractors, restaurant owners, tax preparers, and real estate agents. The pipeline from employee to employer is well established in the TPS community. When the CNA loses work authorization, the future agency owner never starts. The Hotel Worker Jan Gautam of IHRMC Hotels told CNN that roughly 30 percent of his hotel staff are Haitian TPS holders. Across the state, 16,000 cooks and servers among Haitian TPS holders serve an estimated 880,000 meals daily. "Just the start" -- the $2.6 billion figure does not include the cascading effects of lost productivity, business closures, and reduced consumer spending that would follow termination. -- Carol Dover, President, Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association The Agricultural Worker Fifteen thousand Haitian TPS agricultural workers nationally harvest 5,000 acres daily. In Florida, 12,000 agricultural workers are Haitian TPS holders -- picking tomatoes, citrus, and row crops across Homestead, Immokalee, and other farming communities. This is the invisible workforce that makes Florida's $7.6 billion agricultural economy possible. The Homeowner Sixty-three thousand TPS households across Florida own homes, supporting $19 billion in housing value. The American Immigration Council found that 41 percent of TPS households are homeowners -- higher than the national immigrant average. Each of these households pays property taxes, maintains a lawn, and contributes to the local tax base that funds schools, roads, police, and fire services. When TPS ends, these homeowners do not simply leave. They sell at a loss, default on mortgages, or abandon properties -- destabilizing neighborhoods and eroding the tax base. The Full Picture: Statistics That Tell the Story $2.6B Annual contribution to FL economy (FWD.us) $10.7B GDP from all TPS workers in FL (PWBM) 93,000 Haitian TPS workers in FL workforce 94.6% Employment rate (higher than U.S.-born) Tax Contributions: The Government's Share Haitian TPS holders in Florida pay $306 million annually in state and local taxes and $300 million in federal and payroll taxes. Nationally, the total tax contribution of Haitian TPS holders is $1.56 billion -- $805 million in federal and payroll taxes plus $755 million in state and local taxes. These are taxes that fund schools, roads, healthcare, and public safety in the communities where TPS holders live and work. The most striking fiscal fact, however, is the Social Security contribution. Over 25 years, TPS workers have contributed $20 billion to Social Security. Because most TPS holders cannot become permanent residents or citizens, the vast majority will never draw Social Security benefits from those payments. It is a pure subsidy to the system -- a transfer from people who cannot access the benefits they are funding. Homeownership and Housing Metric Value TPS households owning homes in Florida 63,000 Housing value supported $19 billion TPS homeownership rate 41% (above nat'l immigrant avg.) TPS renting households nationally 89,600 Annual rent paid by TPS households nationally $1.3 billion

Entrepreneurship: The Business Creators The 14.5 percent self-employment rate among TPS holders is not just a statistic -- it is a fundamental characteristic of the population. Nationally, TPS holders own an estimated 60,000 to 70,000 businesses. In Florida, 8,200 self-employed TPS holders generated $608.5 million in business income. The concentration of entrepreneurship is particularly high in home healthcare, construction, transportation, and food services -- exactly the industries where TPS holders are most heavily employed. Occupational Breakdown: Where Haitian TPS Holders Work in Florida Occupation Number of Workers Healthcare (nursing assistants, home health aides, etc.) 35,000 Cooks and servers 16,000 Agricultural workers 12,000 Stockers and packers 8,000 Security guards 5,000 Other (construction, transportation, manufacturing) Remainder of 93,000

The Remittance Economy Haitian TPS holders send a significant portion of their earnings to family members in Haiti. Total remittances to Haiti reached $4.9 billion in 2025, with 62.8 percent originating from the United States. Remittances represent 16 to 22 percent of Haiti's GDP. The remittance storefronts that line the streets of Little Haiti, North Miami, and Miramar are among the most visible business types in South Florida's Haitian community. When TPS ends and work authorization is revoked, these remittance flows -- a lifeline for millions of Haitians -- will diminish dramatically. Comparison: Haiti TPS vs. Other Countries Metric Haiti El Salvador Venezuela TPS population ~330,735 ~170,125 ~605,015 Workforce ~200,000 ~85,000 ~350,000 Annual contribution $5.9B est. $2-3B est. $8-10B Key sector Healthcare Construction Services/hospitality

Fun Facts: Surprising Findings What You Might Not Know Florida's TPS GDP ($10.7 billion) exceeds Texas ($4.3 billion), California ($3.6 billion), and New York ($2.8 billion) combined. One state produces more TPS economic value than the next three states put together. TPS holders have paid $20 billion into Social Security over 25 years that they will likely never collect. It is a pure subsidy to the system from people who cannot become citizens. The $2.6 billion is conservative. It only counts Haitian TPS holders. The total TPS economic contribution in Florida (all countries, including Venezuela, El Salvador, Honduras) is $10.7 billion in GDP. TPS holders have a 94.6 percent employment rate -- higher than the U.S.-born population and higher than other foreign-born groups. At 14.5 percent, TPS holders are 56 percent more likely to own a business than U.S.-born workers. TPS households pay $1.3 billion in annual rent nationally -- money that flows directly to landlords, property managers, and property owners. The Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, found that immigrants generated a $14.5 trillion fiscal surplus from 1994 to 2023 -- paying more in taxes than they receive in benefits. FRLA president Carol Dover called the $2.6 billion figure "just the start," noting that it does not include the cascading effects of lost productivity, business closures, and reduced consumer spending. TPS holders have contributed $262 billion cumulatively to the U.S. economy since 1990. The program was designed as "temporary," but the economic integration is anything but. Why This Matters: The Stakes of Termination The Supreme Court's ruling in Mullin v. Doe on June 25, 2026, allows the administration to terminate TPS for Haiti. If implemented, the economic consequences for Florida would be immediate and severe. The state would lose $2.6 billion in annual spending power. The housing market would face destabilization as 63,000 TPS homeowner households face foreclosure or distressed sales. The healthcare system would lose 35,000 workers at a moment when the U.S. population aged 65 and older is growing by 42 percent through 2050. For organizations tracking the economic impact of policy changes on immigrant communities and the industries that depend on them, tools like PROVEN help coordinate data across employers, advocacy groups, and policymakers to ensure that the full scope of the economic stakes remains visible. The $2.6 billion question is not really about the number itself. It is about whether the policy recognizes the economic reality that TPS holders are not temporary participants in the Florida economy. They are deeply integrated contributors -- homeowners, business owners, taxpayers, and essential workers. The question is whether the system that depends on their contributions can afford to lose them. Sources Core Economic Data FWD.us. "Haiti TPS Fact Sheet." Jan. 2026, www.fwd.us/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Haiti-TPS-Fact-Sheet_January-2026.pdf. FWD.us. "Haitian TPS Holders Make the U.S. Stronger." 22 Jan. 2026, www.fwd.us/news/haitian-tps-holders-make-the-u-s-stronger/. FWD.us. "New Data Reveals Economic Cost of Terminating Haiti TPS." 27 Jan. 2026, www.fwd.us/news/new-data-reveals-the-immense-human-and-economic-cost-of-terminating-haiti-temporary-protected-status/. FWD.us. "Temporary Protected Status Report." 21 Apr. 2026, www.fwd.us/news/temporary-protected-status-report/. Penn Wharton Budget Model. "550,000 Workers Lose Status by End of 2025." 19 Nov. 2025, budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/p/2025-11-19-550-000-workers-lose-status-by-end-of-2025/. American Immigration Council. "Contributions of TPS Holders to U.S. Economy." Sep. 2023, www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/fact-sheet/contributions-temporary-protected-status-holders-us-economy/. Independent Analysis and Methodology "By the Numbers: Haitian TPS Holders Pump $6 Billion into US Economy." Haitian Times, 2 Feb. 2026, haitiantimes.com/2026/02/02/haitian-tps-economic-data/. "TPS Holders Add $29 Billion to US Economy." Fortune, 23 Apr. 2026, fortune.com/2026/04/23/tps-holders-add-29-billion-to-us-economy/. "TPS Holders Contribute $262 Billion Since 1990." The Guardian, 22 Apr. 2026, www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/22/temporary-protected-status-us-economy. "Haitian TPS: Employers Brace for Economic Impact." CNN, 28 Apr. 2026, www.cnn.com/2026/04/28/economy/haitian-tps-immigrants-economy-supreme-court. "Congresswoman Frankel Warns Ending Haitian TPS Will Cripple Florida's Economy." WLRN, 6 Jul. 2026, www.wlrn.org/immigration/2026-07-06/a-gaping-hole-congresswoman-frankel-warns-ending-haitian-tps-will-cripple-floridas-economy. Housing and Real Estate "Lives of South Florida Haitians on Hold." WLRN, 14 Jan. 2026, www.wlrn.org/immigration/2026-01-14/lives-of-south-florida-haitians-on-hold-as-tps-expiration-looms. Home Care Association of Florida. "TPS Impact Statement." HomeCareFLA.org, members.homecarefla.org/news/Details/hcaf-urges-congress-to-act-as-haiti-tps-termination-threatens-florida-s-home-care-workforce-307900. USC Equity Research Institute. "Promising Returns" (TPS Housing Data). Dornsife.USC.edu, dornsife.usc.edu/eri/wp-content/uploads/sites/41/2023/01/2019_PromisingReturnsTPS_CSII.pdf. Historical and Comparative Data ILRC. "Economic Contributions by Salvadoran, Honduran, and Haitian TPS Holders." Apr. 2017, www.ilrc.org/sites/default/files/resources/2017-04-18_economic_contributions_by_salvadoran_honduran_and_haitian_tps_holders.pdf. Center for Migration Studies. "TPS Statistical Profile." 2017, cmsny.org/publications/jmhs-tps-elsalvador-honduras-haiti/. Center for American Progress. "TPS Holders Are Integral Members." Oct. 2017, www.americanprogress.org/article/tps-holders-are-integral-members-of-the-u-s-economy-and-society. National Foundation for American Policy. "Venezuelan TPS Fiscal Analysis." Jan. 2026, nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Analysis-of-Fiscal-and-Economic-Gains-From-Venezuelans-on-TPS-January-2026.DAY-OF-RELEASE-1.pdf. Tax and Fiscal Analysis Cato Institute. "Immigrants' Recent Effects on Government Budgets." Feb. 2026, www.cato.org/white-paper/immigrants-recent-effects-government-budgets-1994-2023. Brookings Institution. "The Impact of Immigrants on the US Economy." Mar. 2026, www.brookings.edu/articles/the-impact-of-immigrants-on-the-us-economy/. The Conversation. "Florida Immigrants Who May Lose Work Permits." 4 Apr. 2025, theconversation.com/florida-is-home-to-about-341-000-immigrants-from-venezuela-and-haiti-who-may-soon-lose-residency-work-permits-251791. Remittances "Haiti Remittances." Trading Economics, tradingeconomics.com/haiti/remittances. "Status of Diaspora Remittances to Haiti." HaitiLibre, 16 Jun. 2026, www.haitilibre.com/en/news-46327-haiti-economy-status-of-diaspora-remittances-to-haiti.html. "Remittances as Percent of Haiti GDP." TheGlobalEconomy.com, www.theglobaleconomy.com/Haiti/remittances_percent_GDP/. Business Impact "Loss of Haitian TPS Will Hit Miami's Economy Hard." Miami Herald, 31 Jan. 2026, www.miamiherald.com/news/local/immigration/article314473355.html. "Florida Businesses Warn of Worker Shortage." Gulfshore Business, www.gulfshorebusiness.com/hospitality/florida-businesses-warn-of-worker-shortage-after-tps-ends/article_df51ab53-ebd4-446f-8294-34f6b8fbcafe.html. "Local Businesses Feel Impact of TPS Uncertainty." WPTV, 4 Feb. 2026, www.wptv.com/news/palm-beach-county/judge-blocks-trumps-end-to-haitian-protections-but-local-businesses-still-feel-impact. National Immigration Forum. "TPS Fact Sheet." 14 Jul. 2026, forumtogether.org/article/temporary-protected-status-fact-sheet/.